2009 Oscar Predictions

Article posted – 12/20/08

Article by Terry Plucknett

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With Oscar nominations only a month away (and with the other two writing Oscar prediction articles), I thought I would try my luck at it.  I might place myself somewhere in between Todd and Zach on my interest in the Oscars.  I am not completely turned off by the Oscar chatter like Zach is.  I find the whole Oscar race quite fascinating.  With that said, I don’t keep quite as close of an eye on it as Todd does.  That’s why he is our Oscar guru.  With that said, no matter what you think about the Oscars, because of them, this is the most exciting time for movies during the year.  Many of the best movies come out at this time to be fresh in the minds come Oscar time.  So I don’t care what you think of them, the Oscars are very influential on the movie industry and worth discussing.  With that said, let’s get on with the predictions.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Happy-Go-Lucky

Milk

Rachel Getting Married

Vicky Christina Barcelona

WALL-E

Winner – WALL-E

It has been a long time since an animated film has been this competitive in this category, but WALL-E I think is the favorite in this category.  The other films in this category are ones that have been loved throughout awards season so far.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Doubt

Frost/Nixon

Slumdog Millionaire

Winner – Slumdog Millionaire

Danny Boyle’s new film has been loved so far, and I think could be the favorite right now.  The Dark Knight could sneak in there if the Academy loves it as much as the public did.  If not, look for a film like Revolutionary Road to take its spot.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz – Vicky Christina Barcelona

Voila Davis – Doubt

Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler

Kate Winslet – The Reader

Winner – Penelope Cruz

In most acting categories, there seems to be one person that emerges from a talented pool to steal away all the accolades.  So far, that person in this category has been Penelope Cruz.  Marisa Tomei seems to be one that the Academy can’t get enough of either.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Josh Brolin – Milk

Tom Cruise – Tropic Thunder

Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt

Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight

Liev Schreiber – Defiance

Winner – Heath Ledger

Everyone who loves The Dark Knight, Heath Ledger, any of his films, or honoring the memory of a great artist is rooting for Heath Ledger.  I don’t see how the Academy can’t honor him.  Josh Brolin has had two of the strongest years an actor can have, and this seems to be the film he will finally be honored for.  Ever since Philip Seymour Hoffman won his Oscar for Capote, he has been on a role and the Academy has seen fit to continue to honor him with nominations.  Edward Zwick movies tend to get rewarded by the Academy, and this is usually where they appear the most (Denzel Washington for Glory, Ken Watanabe for The Last Samurai, Djimon Hounsou for Blood Diamond … need I say more?).  This bodes well for Liev Schreiber to get a nomination for Zwick’s newest film.  As for Tom Cruise, you can call it a hunch.  It reminds me some of this race a few years ago when one of the favorites was Jack Nicholson for The Departed.  He was nominated for a Golden Globe, but Mark Wahlberg was also nominated for the same film at the Globes, a performance that was a lesser role that had not been recognized at all until that point.  When it came time for the Oscars, Wahlberg was nominated and Nicholson was nowhere to be found.  I have a hunch the same might happen here.  One of the favorites in this category has been Robert Downey, Jr. for Tropic Thunder.  He was nominated for a Golden Globe, but so was Tom Cruise, a performance that was smaller and had not been recognized yet (sound familiar?).  So I think it might happen again.  Cruise will be nominated, and Downey, Jr. will be left off.

BEST ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married

Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky

Angelina Jolie – Changeling

Meryl Streep – Doubt

Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road

Winner – Anne Hathaway

This race seems to be wide open.  Hathaway is young Hollywood with a great performance, which bodes well.  Hawkins is the no-name actress that seems a lock, but couldn’t really win.  If Meryl Streep has a solid performance in any given year, you can be sure she will be nominated.  Jolie has been hated on by the Academy since she won her Oscar as a no-namer for Girl, Interrupted.  I think it’s about time she is honored once again.  As for Winslet, I’m predicting she will be a double-nominee.  The Academy loves to honor her, but has yet to reward her.  They may decide she will have plenty of opportunities in the future and decide to go with someone else again.

BEST ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road

Richard Jenkins – The Visitor

Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon

Sean Penn – Milk

Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler

Winner – Mickey Rourke

Mickey Rourke is the feel-good story that could be rewarded.  However, the Academy has been known to snub a “bad boy” in the past.  Langella plays Nixon in a role he won a Tony for.  How could he not be nominated?  Sean Penn gives a stronger performance than was shown in his Oscar win for Mystic River.  Plus, he was snubbed last year for directing Into the Wild.  He will be on the list, but not honored so soon after his last win.  In this race, you need a small name from a small movie, and Richard Jenkins matches that description.  Lastly, Kate and Leo have more than just Titanic and Revolutionary Road in common.  The Academy loves to nominate them, but never lets them win.  I think this year it will happen to both of them for the same movie.  If not, look for Brad Pitt to be honored for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire

David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Thomas McCarthy – The Visitor

Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight

Gus Van Sant – Milk

Winner – David Fincher

It is very likely for Boyle, Fincher, and Van Sant to be honored in this category.  Christopher Nolan’s nomination depends on how much the Academy wants to honor The Dark Knight.  In looking at the other potential directors like Ron Howard, Sam Mendes, Clint Eastwood, etc., I decided they will go for a small name amongst all the heavy hitters.

BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Milk

Revolutionary Road

Slumdog Millionaire

WALL-E

Winner – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

This race is just weird.  None of the major players in this category are traditional Oscar-friendly movies.  All of them don’t quite fit.  That is why WALL-E has a good shot this year.  I am picking The Curious Case of Benjamin Button simply because it is the least non-Oscar friendly of the group.  Revolutionary Road seems like it could have a shot, but it will probably end up like its stars: empty-handed at the end of the night.