2010 NFL Playoff Predictions – Wild Card Weekend

Article by Zach Saltz

Posted - 1/7/11

Here are my predictions for the first round of the 2010 NFL Playoffs.  Ultimately, writing this may be an exercise in futility, since the Patriots could (and, more likely than not, will at some point) beat any of these teams.  Oh, and if this year’s Super Bowl turns out to be a rematch of Pittsburgh-Seattle from the infamous Super Bowl XL, I vow to never watch football ever again.  Go lockout!

New Orleans (11-5) vs. Seattle (7-9) 4:30 E.T. NBC

If any team in the NFL was to make the playoffs with a losing record, it would be the Seahawks.  For years, they’ve been the very quintessence of mediocrity disguised as a playoff team.  Their strength of schedule has been rated at -1.5 or lower each of the last seven years.  They play in football’s easiest division, and have one of the best home-field advantages in the league.  The 2010 Seahawks ranked in the bottom five for both total offense and defense, had its best runner rush for 573 yards, boasted no receiver with more than four touchdowns, and lost seven of its last ten games.  Four of the Seahawks’ seven wins came against the putrid NFC West; they only beat one playoff team, and they even trailed 14-0 to the Panthers at home (although, in all fairness, they did ultimately win the game). 

So it should be a runaway for the defending champs, no?  Not so fast.  On the surface, the 2010 Saints appear to be a direct corollary to the ineptitude of the Seahawks.  New Orleans ranked in the top six for both total offense and defense, and played in one of the NFL’s toughest divisions.  They beat the Steelers and the Falcons, and throttled the Seahawks in the Superdome in Week 11, 34-19.  But lurking beneath the surface of a successful regular season are some serious concerns for the champs.  The Saints’ biggest strengths during their Super Bowl run last year was their ability to run the ball and to capitalize on turnovers.  This year, both have proven to be difficult to sustain.  For 2010, New Orleans has a minus-6 turnover ratio (compared with their plus-16 ratio during their first thirteen games of last year, and plus-7 ratio during their playoff run).  They’ve intercepted only nine passes all year, worst in the league and 17 fewer than they had in 2009.  Drew Brees hasn’t helped in the turnover department, throwing an uncharacteristically high amount of interceptions (22).  The running game has been a persistent issue all year, with Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush nursing injuries, and the offense is no longer the scoring juggernaut of last year.  In 2009, the Saints had seven games where they scored 35 or more points.  In 2010, New Orleans has not had any.

So now you’re thinking, “Sure, there’s a little Super Bowl hangover there.  But the Saints can’t possibly lose to the Seahawks, right?”  Well, let’s consider these facts: (A) New Orleans (and Drew Brees) have never won a playoff game on the road, (B) The Seahawks have won their last four playoff home games dating back to the 2005 season, (C) The Saints have looked vulnerable in their last four home games, with nail-biters against the Cowboys and Bengals, and (D) The Seahawks finally looked like they could run the ball last Sunday night against the Rams, and when New Orleans is unable to stop the run, the results have been negative.  Seattle will need serious press on the Saints’ multifaceted receiving corps, but slowing down the offensive passing tempo, as they did so successfully against St. Louis, will be their key to the game.

Playoff Doppelganger: 2008 NFC Wild-Card – Arizona 30, Atlanta 24.  It was only two years ago when the Cardinals, losers of four of their last six games, were dubbed the “worst team ever to make the playoffs.”  Suddenly, without warning, they caught fire and came within a bad call of winning the Super Bowl.  Now Chuck Whitehurst is no Kurt Warner and Mike Williams is no Larry Fitzgerald (and nor is Drew Brees a rookie quarterback), but there are parallels.  If Hasselback plays, he has considerable playoff experience, and Seattle is, like Phoenix, an undesirable place to play for a dome team from the East.  I really hate this, because I love the Saints and disdain the Seahawks, but something just tells me this matchup doesn’t fare well for a defending champ that has (understandably) gone under the radar for most of the season…

Prediction: Seattle 19, New Orleans 16.

New York (11-5) at Indianapolis (10-6), 8:00 E.T. NBC

It’s a rematch of last-year’s AFC Championship, although the storyline has changed a little bit.  Last year, the Jets were a team on a serious hot streak, winning seven of their last eight (including two road playoff victories), and had unequivocally the league’s top defensive unit.  This year, the defense is still strong (ranking in the top six for both rush and pass defense), Mark Sanchez’s numbers are a little better, and the team has won two more games overall, including victories over the Patriots and the Steelers.  But the Jets come into the playoffs anything but hot, with serious questions about a defense that gave up 38 points to the Bears, underwhelming seasons by star CBs Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, and a quarterback who has thrown one touchdown since Thanksgiving.  Last year, Rex Ryan’s comments about New York being the best team in the league heading into the playoffs were not taken lightly by anyone who had seen them play.  This year, his comments seem self-absorbed and laughable.

Like the Jets, the 2010 Colts sometimes appeared to muster only a fraction of last season’s power.  Like their Super Bowl foe New Orleans, Indianapolis intercepted remarkably few passes (10), turned the ball over too much, and played one-dimensional on offense.  For the third year in a row, the offense was completely reliant on the throwing arm of Peyton Manning, as the rush attack was practically non-existent for most of the season.  But it is worth noting that Indianapolis was able to move the ball effectively on the ground in its last four games; and curiously, it during these four games where the Indy defense was able to stop opponents’ rushers most effectively.  Coincidence?  Well, not exactly, when you look at the opponents they faced (Oakland, Jacksonville, and Tennessee twice).  But for a team that severely lacked consistency during its first 12 games, the Colts’ last four victories served as a rallying cry to critics and skeptics.

Personally, Indy is the team I’m most rooting for during wild-card weekend because I believe they are the most likely of any team to go into Pittsburgh next week and upset the Steelers.  I hate the Steelers, and the sooner they’re eliminated, the easier I’ll sleep at night.  Peyton Manning doesn’t lose in the playoffs unless he’s facing a San Diego quarterback (Philip Rivers or Drew Brees), and against the Jets, who have looked predictable and vulnerable the last few weeks, it shouldn’t be too much of a contest.

Playoff Doppelganger: 2006 AFC Wild Card – Indianapolis 23, Kansas City 8.  The Colts were a three seed that year too, and looked unpredictable and inconsistent until they faced an even less predictable and consistent team in Trent Green and Larry Johnson.  The Indy defense came alive against the inexperienced offense, and a few weeks later, the Colts were World Champions.  Let’s just hope Indy can make it as far as Foxboro this year.

Prediction: Indianapolis 27, New York 13.

Baltimore (12-4) at Kansas City (10-6), 1:00 E.T. CBS

For the third straight year, Baltimore is on the road in the early Sunday game during Wild-Card weekend.  In the last two years, the Ravens have dominated teams they were underdogs against (a 27-9 whitewashing of Miami, and a 33-14 victory over New England, Tom Brady’s only home loss of any kind since 2006).  This year’s Ravens have a better record than either of the last two squads, and are favored by 11 over the Chiefs, a team that hasn’t won a playoff game since 1994, and whose last playoff victory came against the Houston Oilers.

So again, this one should be no-brainer, right?  Well, Kansas City did look pretty darn awful in their regular-season finale, a 31-10 home thumping by the Raiders.  But for those who have seen the Chiefs at home all season (like I have, as a resident of Kansas), the game seemed very atypical for a team that had won their previous seven home games by an average margin of just under two touchdowns.  Regardless of this game’s outcome, Todd Haley and his staff must be commended on the exceptional turnaround for this franchise.  Statistically, the numbers point to a not just a solid Chiefs squad, but a historically great one that is more than capable of winning this game:  As a team, they turned the ball over only 14 times (3^rd best in NFL history), and Jamal Charles had the best yards-per-rush average (6.38 yards) of any runningback since Jim Brown, on a team that led the NFL in rushing.  Matt Cassel boasted Brady-like numbers (27 TDs, 7 Ints) and Dwyane Bowe led all receivers with 15 TDs.  In fact, it seems a little amazing this team didn’t win more than 10 games, except considering that two of their losses were came in the last second , and one of their losses came when Cassel was injured. 

Considering all this, it is a little unusual why Baltimore is favored so highly in this game.  The Ravens played sound football most of the season, but were not exceptional in any one category (the closest would be rush defense, where they only gave up five rushing touchdowns all season).  At times, their heralded defense looked questionable, evidenced by giving up 34 points to Buffalo at home and a near-historic second half collapse against Houston.  They didn’t run the ball terribly effectively (as a team, they averaged a measly 3.8 yards per carry), and if we’re talking about the way these two teams played last week, you can’t overlook Joe Flacco’s inability to pass the ball well against the Cincinnati secondary.  Of course, this is a Ravens team that has won a Super Bowl in the last decade, as well as three road playoff games in the last two years.  They’ve traditionally feasted on inexperienced quarterbacks.  This game is the hardest to call because I believe the Chiefs will be fired up for their first playoff game at Arrowhead in seven years, and barring last week’s meltdown, they had been considered a virtual lock for their first home game in the playoffs.  I think it will be quite a bit closer than people think, but in the end, the playoff experience of the Ravens will prove most important.

Playoff doppelganger: 2004 AFC Wild Card – NY Jets 20, San Diego 17 (OT).   San Diego’s first home playoff game in a decade came after a magical turnaround season, with terrific numbers from Drew Brees (27 TDs, 7 Ints) and LaDanian Tomlinson (1,335 yards and 17 TDs).  The Jets quietly came in as a team that preached sound defense and capitalizing off turnovers.  In that game, the Jets were able to take a ten-point lead, which made San Diego abandon its running game.  If the Ravens take a two-score lead early in this game and disrupt the Chief’s running game, this one could turn into a blowout.

Prediction: Baltimore 27, Kansas City 24

Green Bay (10-6) at Philadelphia (10-6), 4:30 E.T. Fox

Of all the playoff matchups this weekend, this one may be the most important, since I believe the winner of this game has a legitimate shot to win the NFC.  Philadelphia has already beaten the Falcons, and Green Bay beat the Bears last week, although neither of those matchups would occur immediately next week following the outcome of this game.  Regardless, this game features two of the most explosive offenses in football, with the NFC’s top two quarterbacks statistically.

Of the two teams, Green Bay is clearly the one with more momentum.  A fashionable pre-season pick (and my Super Bowl champ), the Pack quickly underperformed due to a cruel host of injuries on both offense and defense.  Where injuries have been most apparent has been the running game, where second-stringer Brandon Jackson has played nobly, but has had only one 100-yard game and three rushing touchdowns all year.  Aaron Rodgers has, by all accounts, had a phenomenal season, and appears to have had little aftereffects of his Week 13 injury.  The offense is pass-heavy, but Rodger’s mobility and lightning arm make the passing game difficult for any secondary to entirely contain.  The problem for the Pack has been (and has always been, throughout these last three season with Rodgers at the helm) that they do not do well in close games.  In their last 25 games, Green Bay has lost seven times – and in each loss, the margin of defeat was six points or less.  This is also something that plagued Steve Young and Peyton Manning early in their careers; it is something that Rodgers will likely grow out of with time.

The Eagles are a little more difficult to figure out.  There was a time when they appeared to be the best team in the league behind the Patriots, with Michael Vick playing like a clear choice for MVP.  But like the Chiefs, the Eagles have struggled in their last two weeks, due to at least in part Vick’s injury.  But even before their final two losses (both at home), Philadelphia looked pedestrian in their victory over the Cowboys, and needed a 28-point fourth quarter rally for the ages to beat the Giants.  There’s little question they’ll be able to put up points; they boast top ten rushing and passing attacks, and Vick looked exceptional scrambling against the Packers’ secondary in the teams’ Week One matchup in Philadelphia.  There are two major questions that will ultimately provide major evidence as to which team will emerge victorious.  The first real question is whether Philadelphia’s pass defense is up to the challenge of defending against Rodgers.  They’ve intercepted quarterbacks 23 times over the regular season, but have also surrendered 31 touchdowns.  The second question is Vick’s injury status.  If he plays at the level he was at two months ago, it’s hard to imagine any defense containing him.

Playoff doppelganger: 2009 NFC Wild Card – Arizona 51, Green Bay 45 (OT).  OK, maybe it won’t attain the epic-ness of that game, but I imagine a high-scoring affair with little defense of any kind except for at the moments it matters most.  Green Bay may have to make serious adjustments for Philadelphia’s rapid-fire offense.

Prediction: Philadelphia 38, Green Bay 34